Evaluation

Evaluation I: Valuable

I decided to do in-person surveys with people associated with the university.  This would help me ensure that the people that are answering my questions are of the target audience, and it would also help me probe into their answers if there were questions that I wanted to learn more about as I started getting survey data.  I decided to go to a local coffee shop in Dinkeytown called The Purple Onion in an attempt to get a representative cross-section:

I gave each participant a physical copy of the sketches for each of my top 10 product ideas, and then had them answer the following questions for each ideas:

1. Would you use this?
2. Do you know someone who would use this?
3. How much would you pay for this?
4. Please put an X next to your two favorite product ideas

All of the people that I chose were not associated with one another in any observable way, and I did not allow any person to see the results of any other survey before they gave their response.

Below you can see how I summarized the data that I collected:

The single most important piece of data that I collected here was which products people were interested in using, or products that people thought someone they knew would use.  You can see from those two graphs that of the 15 people surveyed, many people thought they would use:

1. The Rubber Cage
2. The Integrated Cage
3. The Behind the Seat Cage
4. The Tri-Messenger Bag
5. The Elastic Cage

There is correlation between what people would use and what they thought other people would use, however it appears that on top of the products listed above, several people thought that other people would also use:

1. Roll Away Dry Sack
2. Airstream Backpack

I was also very interested in the results of the vote for your favorite question.  I think that this question does a good job of forcing people to pick only two products and essentially be critical of the rest.  In order of popularity:

1. Behind the Seat Cage
2. Tri-Messenger Bag
3. Integrated Cage
4. Elastic Cage
5. Rubber Cage, Mechanical Grabber, Roll Away Dry Sack, Airstream (All tied at 2 votes apiece)

Although the question "How much would you pay for this?" was interesting in that it showed people were willing to pay money for these products, it doesn't really tell much until we can make a cost analysis and determine if the amount would return a profit.

I used these conclusions to down select to the following 5 ideas:

Behind the Seat Cage

Elastic Cage

Integrated Cage

Rubber Cage

Tri-Messenger Bag

Evaluation II: Novel

A) Benchmark these 5 ideas.  Use 2x2s to visualize differences

My top product ideas really fall into two categories.  I am either looking at water bottle cage derivatives, or carrying systems for clothes.

The first 2x2 that I put together looked at different adjustable water bottle cages that I could find on Amazon.com.  I compared the cost (Cheap vs Expensive) and the type of mechanism involved (Flexible/Belt vs Screw/Rigid):

On the matrix above, I am comparing 9 representative products that I found with the 4 applicable product ideas.  You can see that there is a variety of different products out there ranging from $2.99 all the way up to $25.95.  My survey data shows that all of the products I came up with were valued at around the $10 dollar mark for what people would pay for them.  You can also see that there are very few mid range products that use a belt or flexible mechanism.  Both my Elastic Cage idea and my Rubber Cage idea would fit into this gap.

The second 2x2 matrix that I put together reviewed packs that could potentially be used to transport dress clothing.  I used both Amazon.com and Backcountry.com.

I compared the intended use of the bag (Specific to carrying clothes vs General use) against its design intent (Waterproof/rugged vs Trendy appearance).  You can see from this hit matrix that there is a clear gap in the market for a system that is both specifically designed to carry formal clothing and is also designed to withstand the environment that a biking commuter might run into.  My Tri-Messenger bag fits right into this gap.

B.) Patent Search

 I used Google Patent Search to find the following patents related to each of my top 5 ideas:

Behind the Seat Cage:

Bicycle hydration bottle system - US 20100237118 A1

 

Elastic Cage

Water bottle holder system with attachment mechanism - US 6004033 A

Integrated Cage

Integrated removable storage and handlebar system - WO 2013017952 A2

 

Rubber Cage

Bicycle flask holder -  US 5704525 A

 

Tri-Messenger Bag

Combination suitcase-garment bag - US 4817791 A

 

 

 

  

Evaluation III: Feasible

A) Biggest Concerns

My biggest concerns are the following:

1. Behind the Seat Cage: There is clearly patent coverage on this idea, and I have also been able to find a substantial number of products on the market that might fall into this category.  While this idea could be combined with another idea, there is not enough novelty in the "Behind the Seat Cage" by itself.  This would be a fairly simple product to make.
2. Elastic Cage: It will be a challenge to find a material that has the right elastic properties, but is also durable enough for this application.  This product would have to go through many cycles of being stretched out, and it would need to be able to withstand wide temperature variations, UV exposure, and moisture.
3. Integrated Cage: This product would have to be built into the frame of a bike, so it would need to be sold as a new bike rather than an accessory that people could add to their current bike.  This would be a pretty high cost given the target audience, and the amount of value that would be produced from the product
4. Rubber Cage: There would actually be a relatively low range of diameters that this product could accept.  Since the flex would occur along the bottom of the frame or at one of the corners, the outer frame portions would not stay parallel with one another.  This would cause a decrease in grip on the container as the container's diameter increased.
5. Tri Messenger Bag: This would be the most expensive item that I have come up with, and it would also be the most challenging to produce unless I were to partner with a company that already has a mature manufacturing base.  I would need to work with an entity that has experience with textiles, and with waterproofing methods.

B.) Manufacturing Cost Assessment

In the lecture, the following general relationships were presented:

Retail Cost ~ 10 x Material Cost
Manufacturing Cost ~ 2 x Material Cost

Given those relationships, and the retail cost that I found for similar products (as shown on the HIT Matrices above) I am estimating the manufacturing cost of my items to be:

1. Behind the Seat Cage: ($25) / 10 x 2 = $5.00
2. Elastic Cage: ($15) / 10 x 2 = $3.00
3. Integrated Cage: ($750) / 10 x 2 = $150 *
4. Rubber Cage: ($5) / 10 x 2 = $1.00
5. Tri Messenger Bag: ($200) / 10 x 2 = $40.00

 *Note that the Integrated Cage cost is the cost of an entire frame with a built in cage